THE STRUCTURAL PLAN BETWEEN FACT AND IMAGINATION (1)

The newspapers reported that the Cabinet approved Kuwait’s fourth structural plan for the city. The plan outlines the future goals and policies for urban development, aligned with the country’s political, economic, social, and environmental vision. It considers the projected population growth and aims for a balanced distribution of land use, including residential, investment, commercial, industrial, infrastructure, and public facilities until 2040. According to his statement, the Fourth Structural Plan project encompasses four regions: Urban Kuwait Region, Northern Economic Regional Zone, Southern Regional Zone, and Western Regional Zone. The plan anticipates creating over three million job opportunities, and the population is expected to surpass seven million by 2040. In the Urban Kuwait Region, there will be approximately 6,123,500 residents and around 2,968,200 job opportunities. The Northern Regional Zone, serving as an international axis, will have a population of 519,000 with 171,800 job opportunities. The Southern Regional Zone, which represents the industrial axis, will have around 486,000 inhabitants and 157,000 job opportunities. Lastly, the Western Regional Zone, associated with the resource’s axis, will have a population of 126,000 and 180,000 job opportunities. The main objective of the Fourth Structural Plan is to position Kuwait as a financial and commercial hub to attract investment, with the private sector playing a leading role in economic activities and fostering a sense of competition. While we appreciate the government’s proposed plan and its potential implementation, there are some inquiries addressed to the Minister and the Council of Ministers, divided into different articles. Today’s focus is on the relationship between population composition and the project. The project indicates that the government aims to expand through internal investment, which is commendable. However, it is stated that this direction could result in a population increase of over 64%. This raises questions about the number of Kuwaiti nationals and residents included in this plan, and whether there are specific target figures for each group. Statistically, Kuwait has experienced a cumulative population growth rate of approximately 3.13%. If we apply this percentage to the current estimated Kuwaiti population of 1.3 million, it suggests that the Kuwaiti population could reach two million, assuming no naturalization takes place. It is important to note that this calculation serves explanatory purposes and is not intended to be entirely accurate. By subtracting the projected population of seven million from the total number of Kuwaitis in 2040, we can infer that there will be approximately five million expatriates. This signifies a growth of two million compared to their current population of three million, representing a 60% increase. According to my understanding of the minister’s statement, the ratio of Kuwaitis to expatriates in 2040 is expected to range from 30% to 40%, which is close to the current ratio. However, it is crucial to note that this estimation is based on the best-case scenario. To successfully implement this ambitious project, a significantly larger workforce, technical expertise, and local labor will be required than what has been mentioned so far. This raises a question regarding the government’s initiatives, committees, and statements regarding aiming for a population composition of 50%. Have the plans for the state’s organizational structure been coordinated with the National Committee for Population Composition Regulation? Or are they working independently? Conflicting statements and plans can create uncertainty, particularly for potential investors in Kuwait. My dear Minister Fahd Al-Shu’ala, there are two additional questions that will be addressed in the upcoming article, and I hope you receive this advice from a citizen with an open mind.

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